"Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q1 2012" now available at Fast Market Research
08.02.2012 18:09:58 - New Fixed Networks research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
(live-PR.com) - BMI's Q1 2012 report on Ukraine's Telecommunications Market contains revised and extended forecasts, which predict how the country's fixed-line, internet, broadband and mobile telephony sectors will develop through to the end of 2016. Our new forecasts reflect the latest operator and regulatory data covering the period through to the end of September 2011. This quarter sees revisions to all of
our forecasts, in order to reflect the latest available data.
In the three months to September 30, the positive growth trend that affected Ukraine's mobile telephony market in Q211 saw a significant acceleration. Data reported by the leading operators suggest that the market saw a net addition of 1.32mn customers. The total number of subscriptions increased to 55.636mn at the end of September, up by 2.1% y-o-y. Growth in Q311 was largely driven by MTS Ukraine and Turkcell-owned Astelit. By contrast, market leader VimpelCom, the largest operator in the market, experienced relatively weak growth in Q311 compared with its two major rivals, and compared with its own performance in the previous quarter.
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Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/327032_ukraine_telecommunica ..
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We estimate that Ukraine's mobile telephony market grew to 56.55mn subscribers at the end of 2011, equivalent to a penetration rate of just over 125%. We cautiously predict moderate but falling growth rates through to 2016. The biggest downside risk to our forecast scenario is the possibility that one or more of the leading operators will deduct large numbers of inactive prepaid users from their reported totals. Meanwhile, we have upgraded our forecast for mobile ARPU in Ukraine to account for the upward trend that affected the ARPUs of all three of the major operators in both Q211 and Q311. We now estimate that Ukraine's mobile market finished 2011 with an ARPU of UAH38.8, an increase of 16.7% yo- y. To a certain extent, the rise in ARPU was likely influenced by the discounting of inactive subscribers. However, we also believe it was influenced by increasing VAS revenues and the migration of prepaid users to postpaid contracts.
One recent development, which has major implications for the development of Ukraine's mobile telephony market over the next few years, was the announcement in November that Ukrainian incumbent telecoms company Ukrtelecom planned to select a buyer for its 3G mobile network operations after November 25 2011. According to the Kyiv Post, which cites the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Ukrtelecom has completed the first round of receiving proposals from potential buyers. The operator planned to hold a second round of proposals between November22 and 25. Once completed, it reportedly planned to make a decision shortly afterwards. The decision is important because of the potential to bring a new strategic investor into the 3G sector. Ukrtelecom's mobile business Utel is currently the country's sole licence holder.
This quarter sees significant revisions our forecasts for the development of Ukraine's internet user and broadband subscriber markets. Our revised forecasts are based on the assumption that 45% of Ukrainians were regular internet users at the end of 2010; by the end of 2011, we believe this figure had risen to over 52%. We expect steady, but slowing, growth in the number of internet users to continue for the duration of our forecast, resulting in more than 31mn internet users in 2016, equivalent to a penetration rate of over 70%. Meanwhile, our forecast for the Ukrainian broadband sector is based on an estimate of almost 5.99mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2011; this is equivalent to a penetration rate of 13.3% and reflects full-year growth of 31.8%. Factors that are expected to contribute to strong broadband subscriber growth over our forecast period include an increase in investment levels by the major operators, and the proliferation of mobile broadband services.
Ukraine continues to sit in 15th position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Ratings table for the Central and East European telecoms markets. The country scores below the regional average in all the categories surveyed by BMI, although we do see potential for this position improving in the medium term. This quarter sees a further downward move for Ukraine' Country Risk rating. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=101 ..
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
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In the three months to September 30, the positive growth trend that affected Ukraine's mobile telephony market in Q211 saw a significant acceleration. Data reported by the leading operators suggest that the market saw a net addition of 1.32mn customers. The total number of subscriptions increased to 55.636mn at the end of September, up by 2.1% y-o-y. Growth in Q311 was largely driven by MTS Ukraine and Turkcell-owned Astelit. By contrast, market leader VimpelCom, the largest operator in the market, experienced relatively weak growth in Q311 compared with its two major rivals, and compared with its own performance in the previous quarter.
------------------------------------------------------------
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/327032_ukraine_telecommunica ..
------------------------------------------------------------
We estimate that Ukraine's mobile telephony market grew to 56.55mn subscribers at the end of 2011, equivalent to a penetration rate of just over 125%. We cautiously predict moderate but falling growth rates through to 2016. The biggest downside risk to our forecast scenario is the possibility that one or more of the leading operators will deduct large numbers of inactive prepaid users from their reported totals. Meanwhile, we have upgraded our forecast for mobile ARPU in Ukraine to account for the upward trend that affected the ARPUs of all three of the major operators in both Q211 and Q311. We now estimate that Ukraine's mobile market finished 2011 with an ARPU of UAH38.8, an increase of 16.7% yo- y. To a certain extent, the rise in ARPU was likely influenced by the discounting of inactive subscribers. However, we also believe it was influenced by increasing VAS revenues and the migration of prepaid users to postpaid contracts.
One recent development, which has major implications for the development of Ukraine's mobile telephony market over the next few years, was the announcement in November that Ukrainian incumbent telecoms company Ukrtelecom planned to select a buyer for its 3G mobile network operations after November 25 2011. According to the Kyiv Post, which cites the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Ukrtelecom has completed the first round of receiving proposals from potential buyers. The operator planned to hold a second round of proposals between November22 and 25. Once completed, it reportedly planned to make a decision shortly afterwards. The decision is important because of the potential to bring a new strategic investor into the 3G sector. Ukrtelecom's mobile business Utel is currently the country's sole licence holder.
This quarter sees significant revisions our forecasts for the development of Ukraine's internet user and broadband subscriber markets. Our revised forecasts are based on the assumption that 45% of Ukrainians were regular internet users at the end of 2010; by the end of 2011, we believe this figure had risen to over 52%. We expect steady, but slowing, growth in the number of internet users to continue for the duration of our forecast, resulting in more than 31mn internet users in 2016, equivalent to a penetration rate of over 70%. Meanwhile, our forecast for the Ukrainian broadband sector is based on an estimate of almost 5.99mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2011; this is equivalent to a penetration rate of 13.3% and reflects full-year growth of 31.8%. Factors that are expected to contribute to strong broadband subscriber growth over our forecast period include an increase in investment levels by the major operators, and the proliferation of mobile broadband services.
Ukraine continues to sit in 15th position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Ratings table for the Central and East European telecoms markets. The country scores below the regional average in all the categories surveyed by BMI, although we do see potential for this position improving in the medium term. This quarter sees a further downward move for Ukraine' Country Risk rating. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=101 ..
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
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