Country Forecast United Arab Emirates November 2010 Updater - a new market research

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More information regarding this report:Country Forecast United Arab Emirates November 2010 Updater

United Arab Emirates at a glance: 2011-15
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OVERVIEW

The Economist Intelligence Unit considers the outlook for the domestic

 

political environment to be stable, with the president of the UAE and ruler of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, enjoying the support of the rulers of the other six emirates and facing no significant threat to his authority. The UAE will continue to balance relations with the West as well as with Iran but the US will keep the pressure on the UAE to implement tougher sanctions on Iran. During 2009 the global financial crisis shifted the economic policy focus towards protecting the banking sector and maintaining confidence, particularly in Dubai's real estate sector. Shoring up investor confidence will have remained the focus in 2010, but from 2011 attention will return to diversifying the economy away from oil. We have revised our GDP estimates, and forecast that growth will average 4.9% in 2011-15. Inflation has also been revised down and is forecast to average 2% in 2011-15, low by historical standards. The federal budget is forecast to remain positive in the first half of the forecast period but will move into deficit from 2013 onwards as lower oil production combined with a reduction in oil prices reduces government revenue while expenditure remains fairly strong. The UAE is expected to record a budget surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 2011 and 2012 but will then record an average deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2013-15.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

We have made no changes to the political outlook.

Economic policy outlook

The economic policy outlook is largely unchanged.

Economic forecast

We have revised down our GDP growth rates for 2010 and 2011 to 2.1% and 3.1% respectively, which has also affected growth rates for the remainder of the forecast period. The revision is a result of a slowdown in some major projects in Abu Dhabi and weak growth in Western economies. We have also revised down our inflation numbers for 2010 and 2011 to 1.7% and 1.5% respectively, in spite of high food prices as these will be counterbalanced by low rents.
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Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: UAE's business environment at a glance

Policy towards private enterprise and competition

Policy towards foreign investment

Foreign trade and exchange controls

Taxes

Financing

The labour market

Infrastructure

Fact sheet

Outlook for 2011-15: Political stability

Outlook for 2011-15: Election watch

Outlook for 2011-15: International relations

Outlook for 2011-15: Policy trends

Outlook for 2011-15: Fiscal policy

Outlook for 2011-15: Monetary policy

Outlook for 2011-15: In focus

The Central Bank of the UAE creates an International Advisory Council

Outlook for 2011-15: Economic growth

Outlook for 2011-15: Inflation

Outlook for 2011-15: Exchange rates

Outlook for 2011-15: External sector

Data summary: Global outlook

Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices

Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin

Data summary: Growth and productivity

Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size

Data summary: Fiscal indicators

Data summary: Monetary indicators

Data summary: Employment, wages and prices

Data summary: Current account and terms of trade

Data summary: Foreign direct investment

Data summary: External debt

Data sources and definitions

Global data

Domestic data

Abbreviations