Mexico Freight Transport Report Q1 2012: New research report available at Fast Market Research
08.02.2012 18:03:55 - Fast Market Research recommends "Mexico Freight Transport Report Q1 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
(live-PR.com) - BMI remains optimistic on the Mexican freight transport sector. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 3.1% for Mexico in 2012 in response to slowing global growth which we believe will reverse nascent private consumption and investment growth. While we have been pleasantly surprised by the strong export growth over the past 18 months, we note that it has not
translated into strong private consumption, which remains significantly off its pre-crisis highs. We believe that for private consumption to fully recover the economy needs at least a few more quarters of strong US demand to bolster jobs growth and disposable income.
So, while private consumption remains a concern, we expect port freight transport volumes to be bolstered by exports. Although Mexican exports remain dependent on a sustained recovery in US economic growth, over the next five to 10 years we expect robust export growth to continue, as Mexican vehicles and machinery increase their share of the US imports market. We also see potential for increased mining and energy exports to reduce Mexico's structural trade deficit.
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Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/326960_mexico_freight_transp ..
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Mexican export growth has clearly been bolstered by the recovery in the US economy since mid-2009, but the pace of growth - averaging 19.9% y-o-y between January and August 2011, following 30% growth in 2010 - has surprised us. Despite our forecast for Mexico's primary trading partner, the US, to see sluggish GDP growth over the next few years, we believe that Mexican exports will expand by an average annual pace of almost 10% over the next five to 10 years on the back of vehicles and machinery exports and extractive exports, such as silver and copper.
Headline Industry Data
* Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.8% in 2012, with average annual growth of 3.2% during our forecast period.
* Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.1% in 2012, with average annual growth of 3.2% during our forecast period.
* Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 7.6% in 2012, with average annual growth of 7% during our forecast period.
* Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 3.8%, with average annual growth of 6.06% during our forecast period.
* Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 6.3%, with average annual growth of 9.8% during our forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments
Drop-Off In US Demand Raises Fears For Lazaro Cardenas' Throughput
With US and Mexican consumer demand remaining sluggish, BMI believes throughput volumes at the Gulf Coast port of Lazaro Cardenas are under threat. As such, we are unsure of how much international interest two new tenders to develop and operate terminals at the port will attract.
Pilot Programme Puts Brakes On Cross Border Trucking Dispute
The implementation of a cross-border trucking pilot project presents upside risk to BMI's forecasts for Mexican road freight. An agreement on the long running NAFTA trucking issue is long overdue. We caution, however, that if the latest agreement is not successful, Mexico may reinstate and increase the US$2.4bn in punitive tariffs it placed on US goods.
Risks To Outlook
On the downside, our outlook for Mexican consumers remains sluggish. Consumer confidence surveys suggest that the Mexican consumer remains wary. Over the long term we believe Mexican consumer demand will continue to be undermined by the lack of competitiveness in key sectors, lack of fiscal reform and overdependence on the US economic cycle.
Further downside risk to throughput at Mexican ports is presented in the form of sluggish US consumer sentiment. With 80% of exports still destined for the US market, growth is clearly dependent on the US economy not falling back into recession.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis
- Mexico Freight Transport Industry SWOT
- Mexico Political SWOT
- Mexico Economic SWOT
- Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
- Maritime
- Road
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016
- Road Freight
- Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016
- Maritime And Inland Waterway Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2016 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2008-2016
- Trade
- Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
- Table: Mexico's Main Import Partners, 2003-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: Mexico's Main Export Partners, 2003-2009 (US$mn)
Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Mexico - Macroeconomic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profiles
- Agunsa
- Aerotransportes Mas de Carga (Mas Air)
- Kansas City Southern de Mexico (KCSM)
- Grupo Mexico
Country Snapshot: Mexico Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources
View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=101 ..
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
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So, while private consumption remains a concern, we expect port freight transport volumes to be bolstered by exports. Although Mexican exports remain dependent on a sustained recovery in US economic growth, over the next five to 10 years we expect robust export growth to continue, as Mexican vehicles and machinery increase their share of the US imports market. We also see potential for increased mining and energy exports to reduce Mexico's structural trade deficit.
------------------------------------------------------------
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/326960_mexico_freight_transp ..
------------------------------------------------------------
Mexican export growth has clearly been bolstered by the recovery in the US economy since mid-2009, but the pace of growth - averaging 19.9% y-o-y between January and August 2011, following 30% growth in 2010 - has surprised us. Despite our forecast for Mexico's primary trading partner, the US, to see sluggish GDP growth over the next few years, we believe that Mexican exports will expand by an average annual pace of almost 10% over the next five to 10 years on the back of vehicles and machinery exports and extractive exports, such as silver and copper.
Headline Industry Data
* Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.8% in 2012, with average annual growth of 3.2% during our forecast period.
* Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.1% in 2012, with average annual growth of 3.2% during our forecast period.
* Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 7.6% in 2012, with average annual growth of 7% during our forecast period.
* Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 3.8%, with average annual growth of 6.06% during our forecast period.
* Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 6.3%, with average annual growth of 9.8% during our forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments
Drop-Off In US Demand Raises Fears For Lazaro Cardenas' Throughput
With US and Mexican consumer demand remaining sluggish, BMI believes throughput volumes at the Gulf Coast port of Lazaro Cardenas are under threat. As such, we are unsure of how much international interest two new tenders to develop and operate terminals at the port will attract.
Pilot Programme Puts Brakes On Cross Border Trucking Dispute
The implementation of a cross-border trucking pilot project presents upside risk to BMI's forecasts for Mexican road freight. An agreement on the long running NAFTA trucking issue is long overdue. We caution, however, that if the latest agreement is not successful, Mexico may reinstate and increase the US$2.4bn in punitive tariffs it placed on US goods.
Risks To Outlook
On the downside, our outlook for Mexican consumers remains sluggish. Consumer confidence surveys suggest that the Mexican consumer remains wary. Over the long term we believe Mexican consumer demand will continue to be undermined by the lack of competitiveness in key sectors, lack of fiscal reform and overdependence on the US economic cycle.
Further downside risk to throughput at Mexican ports is presented in the form of sluggish US consumer sentiment. With 80% of exports still destined for the US market, growth is clearly dependent on the US economy not falling back into recession.
Report Table of Contents:
SWOT Analysis
- Mexico Freight Transport Industry SWOT
- Mexico Political SWOT
- Mexico Economic SWOT
- Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
- Maritime
- Road
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016
- Road Freight
- Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016
- Maritime And Inland Waterway Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2016 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2008-2016
- Trade
- Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
- Table: Mexico's Main Import Partners, 2003-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: Mexico's Main Export Partners, 2003-2009 (US$mn)
Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Mexico - Macroeconomic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profiles
- Agunsa
- Aerotransportes Mas de Carga (Mas Air)
- Kansas City Southern de Mexico (KCSM)
- Grupo Mexico
Country Snapshot: Mexico Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources
View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=101 ..
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
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