Diabetes Prevalence Expected to Double in Next 25 Years Absent Major Changes, Cost Will Add Further Strain to Health System

(live-PR.com) - ALEXANDRIA, VA -- (Marketwire) -- 11/27/09 -- By 2034, the number of Americans living with
diabetes will nearly double and diabetes spending will nearly triple to
$336 billion, even if the prevalence of obesity in this country remains
stable, according to a study published in the November issue of Diabetes
Care.



A team of researchers led by the University of Chicago constructed a model
of diabetes costs accounting for trends in risk factors (such as obesity),
the natural history of the disease and the effects of treatments, all of
which helped to improve upon forecasts previously used by government budget
analysts, who had not previously taken such factors into account. The study
was done to help forecast the impact of alternative policy scenarios as
Congress debates changes in the health care system, particularly to
Medicare.





The study concluded that, over the next 25 years, the number of Americans
with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes would soar from 23.7 million to
44.1 million -- nearly doubling. During the same period, annual spending
related to diabetes would climb from $113 billion to $336 billion (in 2007
dollars). For those who would be covered by Medicare during this time
period, prevalence would rise from 8.2 million Americans to 14.6 million,
and associated spending would jump from $45 billion to $171 billion.



The analysis in this model differs from previous projection models by
taking into consideration constant changes in the diabetes population over
time, such as the aging of the baby boomer generation and recent increase
in the incidence of obesity rates in the U.S.; and the natural progression
of the disease, such as the development of complications affecting the
eyes, kidneys, circulatory and nervous systems.



"We built this model to improve the budgetary and health outcome
information available to federal policymakers," the researchers explained.
"The model provides a rigorous assessment of the future burden of diabetes
that accounts for the natural history of the disease and recent advances in
treatment."



"Without significant changes in public or private strategies, this
population and cost growth are expected to add a significant strain to an
overburdened health care system," the researchers concluded.



To reach lead researcher Dr. Elbert S. Huang, at the University of
Chicago, email ehuang@medicine.bsd.uchicago.edu : mailto:ehuang@medicine.bsd.uchicago.edu . Interview requests can be
made through Susan Bro (615-440-2799 or susan@mediamindsite.com : mailto:susan@mediamindsite.com ) or
Cathleen Savage (301-634-9411 Savage-Cathleen@norc.org : mailto:Savage-Cathleen@norc.org ).



Diabetes Care, published by the American Diabetes Association, is the
leading peer-reviewed journal of clinical research into one of the nation's
leading causes of death by disease. Diabetes also is a leading cause of
heart disease and stroke, as well as the leading cause of adult blindness,
kidney failure, and non-traumatic amputations.



The American Diabetes Association is leading the fight against the deadly
consequences of diabetes and fighting for those affected by diabetes. The
Association funds research to prevent, cure and manage diabetes; delivers
services to hundreds of communities; provides objective and credible
information; and gives voice to those denied their rights because of
diabetes. Founded in 1940, our mission is to prevent and cure diabetes and
to improve the lives of all people affected by diabetes. For more
information, please call the American Diabetes Association at
1-800-DIABETES (1-800-342-2383) or visit www.diabetes.org : http://www.diabetes.org . Information from
both these sources is available in English and Spanish.



Add to Digg : http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=562967 Bookmark with del.icio.us : http://del.icio.us/post?v=4&noui&jump=close&url=http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=562967 Add to Newsvine : http://www.newsvine.com/_tools/seed&save?u=http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=562967




Contact:
Dayle Kern, ADA
(703) 549-1500 ext. 2290